Future Technology Landscapes: Insights, analysis and implications for defence, Case Study Documentation
The context for defence innovation has changed significantly recently for two reasons. Fir...显示全部The context for defence innovation has changed significantly recently for two reasons. First, the past five years saw significant declines in both research and development (R&D) and research and technology (R&T) budgets, while sustained austerity is expected to continue to shape available defence spending. The declining investment in defence innovation and technology development presents a particular threat to the long-term sustainability of the defence research base. These changes have reinforced a wider trend in recent decades: the shift of the innovation centre of gravity from defence to the civilian sector. Leveraging civil investment — and ensuring that defence investment is targeted in areas where it can most add value — is critical.
In January 2013 RAND Europe was commissioned by the Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) to conduct a study on the future landscape of defence technology development. The primary focus of the study was to help the UK Ministry of Defence (MOD) assess and harness wider investment in relevant UK technology areas. The specific objectives of the study were to:
Identify where MOD and non-MOD investments in R&T are likely to shape future UK technology capability of relevance to defence
Explore enablers and barriers for the MOD in maximising the impact of its increasingly limited R&T budget.显示部分
Additive manufacturing (AM) — colloquially known as three-dimensional, or 3D, printing — i...显示全部Additive manufacturing (AM) — colloquially known as three-dimensional, or 3D, printing — is an emerging technology with potential local and international security implications in the near and long terms. This Perspective — part of a series examining critical security challenges in 2040 — offers a new framework for exploring the disruptive dimensions of AM technology, helping to inform which sectors and industries might be the most affected in the future. To better understand the security implications, a RAND research team briefly reviewed the existing literature, conducted interviews with stakeholders and subject-matter experts, and convened a workshop with technology and security experts. Two overarching security threats emerged: the proliferation of weapons and economic insecurity. This Perspective explores each of these security threats and offers a series of mitigation strategies and policy recommendations to help manage and regulate the negative impacts of this technology.显示部分
How disruptive technologies are opening up innovative opportunities in services
In search of sustainable ways to grow, industrial companies are turning to their vast inst...显示全部In search of sustainable ways to grow, industrial companies are turning to their vast installed base as a source of recurring revenues and profits. Revenues from servicing, especially aftermarket services and parts, are generally more stable than those from equipment sales and have shorter lead cycles, so they offer a way to counter the cyclical nature of capital investments. In some subsectors, such as flow control, services tend to generate higher margins than equipment sales. What’s more, pursuing new servicing opportunities can transform a company’s relationship with its customers by giving it deeper insight into how its products are used.显示部分
The next horizon for industrial manufacturing: Adopting disruptive digital technologies in making and delivering
In the past few years, advanced industrial companies have made solid progress in improving...显示全部In the past few years, advanced industrial companies have made solid progress in improving productivity along the manufacturing value chain. In the US, for instance, the productivity of industrial workers has increased by 47 percent over the past 20 years. But the traditional levers that have driven these gains, such as lean operations, Six Sigma, and total quality management, are starting to run out of steam, and the incremental benefits they deliver are declining.显示部分
Artificial Intelligence: the Next Digital Frontier?
In this independent discussion paper, we examine investment in artificial intelligence (AI...显示全部In this independent discussion paper, we examine investment in artificial intelligence (AI), describe how it is being deployed by companies that have started to use these technologies across sectors, and aim to explore its potential to become a major business disrupter. To do this, we looked at AI through several lenses. We analyzed the total investment landscape bringing together both investment of large corporations and funding from venture capital and private equity funds. We also reviewed the portfolio plays of major internet companies, the dynamics in AI ecosystems from Shenzhen to New York, and a wide range of case studies. As part of our primary research, we surveyed more than 3,000 senior executives on the use of AI technologies, their companies’ prospects for further deployment, and AI’s impact on markets, governments, and individuals. This report also leverages the resources of McKinsey Analytics, a global practice that helps clients achieve better performance through data. The research was conducted jointly with Digital McKinsey, a global practice that designs and implements digital transformations.显示部分
Disruptive technologies: Advances that will transform life, business, and the global economy
Twelve emerging technologies—including the mobile Internet, autonomous vehicles, and advan...显示全部Twelve emerging technologies—including the mobile Internet, autonomous vehicles, and advanced genomics—have the potential to truly reshape the world in which we live and work. Leaders in both government and business must not only know what’s on the horizon but also start preparing for its impact.显示部分
Artificial intelligence, or the idea that computer systems can perform functions typically...显示全部Artificial intelligence, or the idea that computer systems can perform functions typically associated with the human mind, has gone from futuristic speculation to present-day reality. A new discussion paper from the McKinsey Global Institute, originally presented at the 2017 China Development Forum, explores AI’s potential to fuel China’s productivity growth—and to disrupt the nation’s workforce.显示部分
Automotive revolution- perspective towards 2030: How the convergence of disruptive technology-driven trends could transform the auto industry
This report examines disruptive trends transforming the global automobile industry. It con...显示全部This report examines disruptive trends transforming the global automobile industry. It concludes that disruptive technologies, together with emerging markets and changing consumer preferences around ownership, will revolutionize how industry players respond to changing consumer behavior, develop partnerships and drive digital business transformation. Digitization, increasing automation, and new business models have already revolutionized many other industries; automotive will be no exception. The four main disruptive technology-driven trends affecting the sector are: diverse mobility; autonomous driving; electrification; and connectivity. Automotive incumbents cannot predict the future of the industry with certainty. They can, however, make strategic moves now to shape the industry's evolution.显示部分
Public sector, disrupted: How disruptive innovation can help government achieve more for less
In the wake of the deep austerity facing many governments around the world, leaders are fa...显示全部In the wake of the deep austerity facing many governments around the world, leaders are faced with the challenge to “do more with less.” Disruptive innovation challenges the notion that there must be a tradeoff between price and quality of service. This paper advances the argument that disruptive innovation can thrive in the public sector and show its benefits in public services. It takes a seeing the government through a new lens: where responsibilities and customers of government can be seen as a series of markets that can be shaped in ways to find and cultivate very different, less expensive and ultimately more effective ways of supplying public services.显示部分
We live in a time of growing cyber threats to U.S. interests. State and non-state actors t...显示全部We live in a time of growing cyber threats to U.S. interests. State and non-state actors threaten disruptive and destructive attacks against the United States and conduct cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property to undercut the United States technological and military advantage. We are vulnerable in cyberspace, and the scale of the cyber threat requires urgent action by leaders and organizations across the government and the private sector.
Since developing its first cyber strategy in 2011, the Defense Department has made significant progress in building its cyber capabilities, developing its organizations and plans, and fostering the partnerships necessary to defend the country and its interests. More must be done. Stemming from the goals and objectives outlined in this strategy, appropriate resources must be aligned and managed to ensure progress.
This strategy presents an aggressive, specific plan for achieving change. For DoD to succeed in its mission of defending the United States and its interests in cyberspace, leaders from across the Department must take action to achieve the objectives outlined in this document. They must also hold their organizations accountable. Because of the nature of networks and computer code, no single organization can be relied upon to do this work. Success requires close collaboration across DoD, between agencies of the U.S. government, with the private sector, and with U.S. allies and partners.
The strategic environment can change quickly. That is especially true in cyberspace. We must be dynamic, flexible, and agile in this work. We must anticipate emerging threats, identify new capabilities to build, and determine how to enhance our partnerships and planning. As always, our women and men both uniformed and civilian personnel will be our greatest and most enduring strength and a constant source of inspiration. By working together we will help protect and defend the United States and its interests in the digital age.显示部分